Budget Watch

IPP, the Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Deloitte and newspapers Expresso and Público partner in the “Budget Watch” initiative, which organizes a thorough analysis of Portuguese government budgets by a group of select members of academia and business from an independent, but constructive, point of view.

What is Budget Watch all about?

“The [country] faces serious fiscal challenges. Large budget deficits have returned, and shifting demographics along with growing health care costs are putting intense pressure on the long-term federal budget outlook. Over time, sustained deficits will weaken the economy and adversely affect [our] standard of living”. These words were written about the USA in 2008 by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, but they fit the current Portuguese situation very well, and partly explain our inspiration for this project.

The public finances of Portugal have serious, chronic issues. Institutional conditions and policies that contribute to attain sustainable public finances and growth are a necessary, but not sufficient, condition to promote development and social justice in Portugal. To seriously examine the government budget demands the existence of reading guidelines based on a set of principles. These are not indifferent: they must be clearly set forth. They are divided into two categories:

1. Budget responsiblity. These should be fairly consensual, as they are not related to priorities in specific expenditures or tax policies, but merely to the general budgetary framework and how the budget fits in a medium-term fiscal consolidation path. Based on these principles, we derive the ISEG/IPP Budget Index.

2. Business friendliness. These have to do with specific expenditures or tax measures, from a business perspective. They are the core features in the methodology used to derive the Deloitte Budget Index.

In brief: an assessment of the government budget regarding transparency, stringency, political responsibility and fiscal sustainability leads to our ISEG/IPP Budget Index, based on the opinion of our Scientific Advisory Board. By reviewing the budget from the point of view of its impact on growth and business environment, we derive the Deloitte Budget Index based on the views of our Business Advisory Board.


Budget Watch 2016

Coming soon.

Executive Commitee

Carlos Loureiro (Deloitte), Jorge Marrão (Deloitte) e Miguel St. Aubyn (IPP e ISEG)

Budget Watch Scientific Advisory Board (2016 – new)

António Afonso, Francisca Guedes de Oliveira, João Ferreira do Amaral, Jorge Santos, José Carlos Gomes Santos, José da Silva Costa, Linda Veiga, Manuela Arcanjo, Miguel Cadilhe, Miguel St. Aubyn, Nuno Garoupa, Paulo Trigo Pereira*, Pedro Pita Barros, Ricardo Cabral, Ricardo Reis

*Participation suspended during the exercice of political functions