This paper develops an index to assess intergenerational justice in the domain of environment and natural resources in Portugal. Given the conceptual and operational challenges associated with directly measuring intergenerational justice, the analysis adopts a strong sustainability perspective, focusing on whether current environmental trajectories are consistent with preserving natural capital for future generations. The proposed framework interprets long-term policy targets as implicit intergenerational social contracts and evaluates performance relative to these benchmarks.
The index is constructed using a parsimonious set of indicators covering five key dimensions: climate change, forests and biodiversity, circular economy, water pollution, and freshwater consumption. These indicators are derived from official data sources and designed to reflect both environmental pressures and the state of natural capital, while maintaining a clear link to public policy objectives. A composite indicator is then obtained through the aggregation of these dimensions, allowing for a synthetic and policy-relevant assessment of environmental performance.
The results for the period 2015-2023 reveal a heterogeneous pattern across dimensions. While improvements are observed in climate change mitigation and forest management, these are offset by a persistent deterioration in circular economy indicators and increasing pressure on water resources, particularly in terms of freshwater consumption. The aggregate indicator shows only modest improvement over the period and remains at levels inconsistent with intergenerational sustainability.
The findings highlight the importance of strengthening policy efforts in areas where performance is deteriorating or stagnating. More broadly, the proposed index provides a transparent and consistent tool for monitoring environmental sustainability over time, supporting both policy evaluation and public debate on intergenerational justice.